Line: Auburn -2, Total: 52
Line movement and notes: The point spread has stood pat at The Wynn since opening Auburn -2 on Sunday. Some sports books have nudged the number up to -2.5. On Thursday morning, there’s some wiggle room on the total, as OVER bettors can find 51.5 and 53 is available if you like the UNDER. Visit our odds page for updated college football point spreads and totals.
Series trends: While these teams haven’t played each other since 2011, Auburn is 25-6-1 SU in this series, including eight straight wins in Lexington. Kentucky has covered the spread in the last three meetings with Auburn, but the numbers have been larger (+5.5, +13.5, +22.5) than the pittance the Wildcats are catching tonight.
More: Auburn vs. Kentucky by the numbers
Auburn outlook: The Tigers, ranked No. 6 ahead of the season, have fallen flat in the early going. After beating but failing to cover against Louisville in Week 1, they barely survived Jacksonville State in overtime, and then lost their first two conference games, at LSU and home to Mississippi State. Their 35-21 win as 21.5-point home favorites two weeks ago over San Jose State won’t do anything to appease Auburn fans – and more importantly in our world, Auburn bettors.
Auburn has been outgained by every opponent except Miss State, and LSU has been its only away game of the bunch.
Motivation, though, does not seem to an issue tonight.
“We still have a point to prove. It’s going to be a big point. That we’re not as bad as people think we are," said wide receiver Melvin Ray, per AL.com. “We’re actually a pretty good team and we know how good we are across the board. We know what we got talent-wise and ability-wise and so far we just haven’t proved it.”
With junior Jeremy Johnson struggling, redshirt freshman Sean White has started the last two games at QB. Coach Gus Malzahn has suggested he’ll use both vs. Kentucky.
More on Auburn: Stats and trends
Kentucky outlook: The Wildcats’ only loss of the season came at home against Florida, a result that looks more and more forgivable with every Gators win. Florida outgained Kentucky by a scant 4 yards.
They’ve beaten and covered against their other two SEC opponents – as 7-point dogs at South Carolina (26-22) and as 2.5-point home favorites vs. Missouri (21-13).
Tonight’s game is the first Thursday nighter Kentucky has hosted in 76 years, and the national television spotlight will be on the Wildcats.
Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles acknowledged, “We got caught up in the moment against Florida, and that didn’t work out for us. If we take the same mentality that we did against Missouri, we’ll have a good time and it’ll be a good result.”
More on Kentucky: Stats and trends
Pick: Early-season results notwithstanding, there’s a talent disparity in this game and it’s in Auburn’s favor. The Tigers have to get it going at some point, don’t they? We hope so, and we hope that point is tonight. We’ll lay the short price here. Auburn -2 is the pick from Las Vegas.
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