At least, that’s the way bettors are expected to back them in the 141st Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. American Pharoah will be the favorite. Dortmund is the clear-cut second choice. They are trained by Bob Baffert, who seems likely to become the first trainer since Bobby Frankel in 2003 to send out the first two choices in a Derby and who is seeking to become the first trainer since Ben Jones in 1948 to run one-two.
Though the Baffert pair has drawn the majority of the focus leading up to this Derby, this field appears deeper than the one dominated by Citation and Coaltown in 1948. The quality at the top makes this one of the best Derby fields ever.
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That’s not idle hyperbole. Eight of the 20 horses in this Derby have recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 100 or better, four of them on multiple occasions. Six of the horses got a Beyer of 100 or better in their most recent starts. American Pharoah has won four times in five starts and was adjudged the champion 2-year-old male of 2014. Dortmund has won all six of his starts. Primary rivals such as Carpe Diem (4 for 5) and Materiality (3 for 3), both trained by Todd Pletcher, could be the next two choices, and if that happens, the first four betting choices would enter the race a combined 17 for 19.
Mubtaahij invades from the Middle East, seeking to give world-class trainer Michael de Kock perhaps the greatest prize of his stellar career. Frosted and Upstart, two of the best 2-year-olds of last year, have continued to race strongly at age 3 and have performances that put them right there. Firing Line gave Dortmund a scare in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then crushed his rivals in the Sunland Derby.
In addition to Carpe Diem and Materiality, Pletcher entered Stanford and Itsaknockout, giving him the most runners in the race. Itsaknockout is bound to be a hunch play, not only because this race takes place in the hometown of Ali but because the Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao fight is Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Of the rest, all double-digit prices, the best include Danzig Moon, who has made a strong appearance in his training all week, and Bolo, who was third to Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby. Tencendur will be a big number even though he is one of the six in the field who got a Beyer of at least 100 last time out. The plucky International Star has won three straight races.
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Ocho Ocho Ocho will be part of the early pace, El Kabeir figures to try to rally under Calvin Borel, Keen Ice and Far Right will hope a pace collapse sets up their late runs, and War Story and Mr. Z will try to improve significantly over their recent races.
The pace figures to be fast in the 1 1/4-mile race but not scalding, in large part because the points system now used by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field is weighted toward two-turn, 3-year-old performances. That has impacted the chances of a sprint specialist getting in, something that was more apt to happen under the old system of measuring by graded stakes earnings.
No one understands that change better than Ahmed Zayat, the owner of American Pharoah – as well as El Kabeir and Mr. Z – whose Bodemeister might have been a Derby winner in 2012 had he not been hounded early by the sprinter Trinniberg. He finished second, one of three times Zayat has finished second in the Derby, including with Pioneerof the Nile, American Pharoah’s sire, in 2009.
Baffert is seeking his fourth Derby win and his first since 2002 – “so long ago, I forgot (what it feels like),” he joked the other morning.
In addition to his Derby drought since then, Baffert had a more serious personal issue just three years ago, when he had a heart attack in Dubai.
“I don’t think anybody knows the stress and anxiety these guys are under,” said Baffert’s wife, Jill. “Now, it’s times two. The anxiety is off the charts with these horses.”
Baffert certainly isn’t showing any outward concern. He’s been jovial all week, and his wife said he has “been better at regulating the part of his life where he realizes, ‘It’s out of my hands.’ ”
“This is what we work for, to be competitive at this level,” Bob Baffert said. “I’m very fortunate to have this opportunity. I just want to sit back and enjoy it. Experience in this game helps. The first time I came here, with Cavonnier, I was in awe.”
That first Derby came in 1996. Baffert then won the Derby three times in the next six runnings. Now, 12 Derbies have been run since he last won, but he’s never brought a tag team like this to the ring.
“A lot can happen. You don’t take anything for granted. I saw the Pete Carroll deal,” Baffert said, referring to the coach of the Seattle Seahawks, whose team lost the Super Bowl on a goal-line interception.
American Pharoah will have to overcome post 18, though both Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza were happy to draw out there rather than inside.
American Pharoah has won both of his starts this year in a romp. He did so with a plate covering part of the sole of his left front foot. He will continue to be shod that way Saturday.
Espinoza, who will be seeking his third Derby win overall and his second straight after winning last year with California Chrome, insists that he’s never let American Pharoah go all out.
“I’ve never let him run,” Espinoza said. “I think Saturday seems like the right time to let him run.”
There were 22 entered in the Derby, but the starting field is capped at 20. Frammento and Tale of Verve were placed on the also-eligible list, in that order, and can get in only if a horse in the main body of the race is withdrawn before scratch time Friday morning. After that, it’s too late.
The Derby is the 11th race on a 13-race card that begins at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Post time for the Derby is listed as 6:34 p.m. The race will be seen on NBC during a three-hour telecast beginning at 4 p.m. From noon to 4, Derby Day coverage will be on NBCSN.
This story has been republished with permission from Daily Racing Form.
