Baker believes that once these bitter enemies sit down together, what an aide calls a spontaneous “chemical reaction” will occur, catalyzing the peace process. Something like that did in fact occur before the successful Camp David talks, when Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s unprecedented visit to Jerusalem generated enough Israeli good will to create a political environment in which both sides could make concessions. But this time, the parties will meet not because one of them initiated the move, but because they want to please the United States, the last remaining superpower. “For Sadat, the road to Jerusalem led through Washington,” says Martin Indyk of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “For [Syrian President Hafez] Assad, the road to Washington leads through Jerusalem.” It’s no accident that much of Baker’s preconference negotiating concerned written understandings not among the parties, but separately between each party and the United States.
To generate good will on the part of the Israelis, Baker devised a two-tier process: face-to-face talks between Israel and each neighbor, and multilateral talks on regional concerns like water and refugees that would make Israel feel like part of the neighborhood. But Assad now says he won’t attend the regional talks until Israel proves its good faith in the peace talks, and Syria’s foreign minister says he won’t shake his Israeli counterpart’s hand at the conference because “this hand … is guilty.” Though a Baker aide insisted that the handshake was “only a symbol,” another U.S. official conceded, “It’s hard to generate a chemical reaction between two people who won’t shake hands.”
Still, when Arabs and Israelis sit down together in Madrid, they will be breaking a powerful taboo. And there are signs that despite their public bluster, the parties are taking steps to see that the process doesn’t blow up after the opening round. The Israelis are considering a negotiating strategy that would show some early give on the Golan Heights issue “to keep Syria at the table,” said one source. The Egyptians are working to temper the demands of the Palestinians and Syrians “to make sure they don’t give Shamir an excuse to walk away,” said another. Finally, the external forces bringing the parties to the table still hold: Arab fear that if they don’t move now there won’t be any land to negotiate about, and Israeli fear that they will eventually lose their military dominance in the region. Above all, each party still wants to avoid offending the United States. To keep up the pressure, Washington will have to stay engaged. That means that before too long, Baker will find himself grappling with each of the issues he finessed.
