Barak was down–but not out. His resignation after 17 tumultuous months in office, in fact, was more about hanging on than stepping aside. By resigning, Barak exploited a loophole in Israeli law that allows only sitting members of Parliament to compete in a new election. That may prevent Barak’s most potent rival, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, from mounting a challenge to unseat him. But it also means that the upcoming vote–to be held after 60 days–promises to be an uncommonly emotional and brutal contest, fought against a backdrop of wrenching violence and excruciatingly painful decisions about achieving peace.
Barak may have seized the initiative, but he fights from a position of weakness. The Israeli leader’s peace policies have long gone bust, and his efforts to quell Palestinian violence seem only to stoke it. So frayed is Barak’s coalition that last month it was unable to fend off a bill by the opposition to hold early elections two years ahead of schedule. So the P.M. probably made a tactical decision to throw his opponents off balance. If Netanyahu is sidelined, Barak will face a much weaker opponent–probably Likud leader Ariel Sharon. Then, if his strategy works, Barak hopes to get a new mandate from Israelis by February for a fresh attempt at forging peace with the Palestinians.
Within minutes of Barak’s news conference, Likud lawmakers were aiming a political counterpunch. They pledged to pass special legislation to allow Netanyahu to run. Legal experts said it would be a difficult endeavor in such a short time span, but didn’t rule it out. And even if Likud fails on that front, Barak’s ploy could backfire. Sharon, once a pariah of Israeli politics, has clawed his way back to respectability and is now running neck-and-neck with Barak. Nearly three months of Israeli-Palestinian violence have sapped Barak’s popularity, even among his most solid constituencies.
Still, Barak is bound to get a lift from Saturday’s announcement. Likud might end up squandering much of the coming two months in internal wrangling. At least two party veterans could challenge Sharon in primaries, leaving him little time for campaigning against Barak. The move also hurts would-be contenders in Barak’s own Labor Party. With his resignation, Barak hasn’t left the playing field; he’s only narrowed it.
