And they have a little wind in their sails.
The Bears’ 28-20 Week 2 comeback win at San Francisco prevented a disastrous 0-2 start for Chicago, which plays five of its next seven away from Soldier Field. This was one of the grittiest triumphs of the young season. The Bears shook off a slow start, made the proper adjustments and rallied to pull away from a formidable opponent playing on its home turf.
It would be hard to blame the Bears, then, if they came into Monday night’s game at the Jets (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) with an extra dose of confidence. If the Bears are capable of knocking off the 49ers, surely a win against the Jets is within Chicago’s scope.
About the Jets: like the Bears, they are .500 after two games, but their five-point Week 1 win vs. Oakland didn’t get many style points, and their Week 2 loss at Green Bay highlighted their limitations. While the Jets built a 21-3 second-quarter lead at Green Bay, they could not hold it, and the Packers swept by for a seven-point win. In the final 40 minutes of regulation, the Jets were outscored 28-3.
Can the Jets bounce back? The betting market seems to think so; the Jets are favored in this game, and the line has gone up. But the underdog Bears have an offense like Green Bay’s, one that could give New York some real worries. We know this: The schedule-makers did well to have these teams face off on the first day of fall.
The Line: Jets -2.5, Total: 44.5
Line movement: We can sum the early action up this way: J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS. The early money came in on New York, which widely opened as a 1-point favorite but was laying a field goal at most shops until late Sunday.
“It’s not a surprise to see the Jets move to -3,” Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons told The Linemakers on Sporting News last week. “… It’s hard to imagine (the Bears) can go win another game on the road, given the state of their injuries and everything else going on.”
But there appears to have been some buy-back on the Bears, as many books have come off the key number and adjusted down to 2.5 or even 2.
The total has been bet down from as high as 46.5 and sits at 44.5 and 45 as of about 12:45 p.m. ET Monday. Fun fact: this is the 10th meeting between these teams since 1979 – and none of the previous matchups had a total of higher than 41. Also, eight of those nine games went UNDER. . For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
Trends that matter: The Jets are 19-24-2 against the number as favorites in Rex Ryan’s tenure as head coach (44.2 percent).
The Jets are 3-1 ATS in Monday-night home games under Ryan. Overall, the Jets are 12-8-1 ATS at home on Mondays since 1978 (60 percent).
In Ryan’s tenure, the OVER is 8-6-1 in Jets games with a total of 45 points or higher (57.1 percent).
The Bears are just 2-6 ATS and 3-5 straight-up off a win in Marc Trestman’s time as coach.Note: Historical point spread trends are cited from the Spreadapedia database.
Jets’ secondary under pressure: The Jets’ cornerback play looms a big concern on Monday night. Bears wideouts Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are difficult matchups – tall, athletic, physical targets who can beat tight coverage. Neither is 100 percent – Jeffery wasn’t at top speed because of a hamstring injury in Week 2, while Marshall played through an ankle injury. Nevertheless, both were key contributors in the Bears’ win at San Francisco, with Marshall catching three TD passes.Bears’ run defense gets a test: The Jets’ ground game presents a real challenge for Chicago. The Jets are deep at tailback, and quarterback Geno Smith (17 carries, 64 yards, one TD) runs well and often, too. The Bears have allowed 5.3 yards per carry in two games, with opponents racking up 320 yards and four TDs on 60 attempts.Smith’s time to shine: Smith followed a sharp Week 1 (22-of-28 passing) with a so-so Week 2 (16-of-32). But there will be plays to be made against the Chicago pass defense. The Bears’ secondary isn’t as deep with cornerback Charles Tillman lost for the season with a right triceps tear. If Smith returns to his opening week form, he can thrive against the Bears.
Chicago’s kicking game must be sound: The Bears fell behind early in Week 2 after a punt was blocked deep in their territory. Chicago has a stronger offense than New York and has to believe it can eventually pull away on Monday night, all things being equal. However, special teams errors could ruin the Bears’ best-laid plans.
Injuries that matter: Bears starting center Roberto Garza and left guard Matt Slauson missed Week 2 with ankle injuries. However, the Bears allowed just one sack in the upset of San Francisco. Marshall and Jeffery remain on the injury report, but both seem likely to play Monday night. For the Jets, keep an eye on the health of wide receiver Eric Decker, who has a hamstring injury. Also, Johnson and cornerback Dee Milliner are dealing with ankle ailments.
Visit here for all Week 3 NFL injuries.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-60s, light winds and a 10 percent chance of rain are expected for Monday’s game at MetLife Stadium. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
Handicapping help: Bears-Jets matchup analysis | Power Ratings | CHI team page | NYJ team page
The Linemakers’ lean: We’re on board with the line move to the Jets and the reason behind it. Winning back-to-back primetime games is tough ask of any team, so this is a spot to fade the Bears. We do see Jay Cutler, though, having some success against the Jets secondary. If you can find Jets -2, lay that number. Also, go OVER 44.5.
Do our partners agree? The Quants’ play for tonight