The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington, made the assessment on Thursday. It predicted that a renewed invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarusian territory is looking more likely towards the end of year for multiple reasons, including a ramping up of joint training exercises and rotations.
Russian soldiers and military equipment have also been seen grouping near the Belarus-Ukraine border.
Russia and Belarus began joint air force exercises on January 16 amid growing fears that Putin could lobby his Belarusian counterpart to join the conflict. Belarus said it would activate all of its air force bases, air force training grounds and air defense forces for the drills, with joint air patrols planned along the Belarusian border.
Minsk has maintained that the drills, set to run until February 1, are purely defensive, and that it seeks “to increase interoperability in the joint performance of combat training tasks.”
“The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a new Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely given current Russian military activity in Belarus. A new MDCOA of an attack from Belarus in late 2023 seems more likely,” the ISW said.
“Russian forces currently deployed in Belarus are undergoing training rotations and redeploying to fight in eastern Ukraine,” the ISW noted, adding that by the fall of 2023, Russia may have completed several conscription cycles.
According to the think tank’s assessment, it appears more likely that Russian forces may be setting conditions for a new MDCOA of attacking Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023 given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to conduct major exercises (Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September of this year.
“A delayed timeline for this COA could allow Russia’s military industry to gear up sufficiently to provide a greater proportion of the necessary materiel for a renewed invasion from Belarus than Russia can provide this winter,” the ISW said.
At the same time, senior officials within the Kremlin are continuing to hold high-level meetings with Belarusian national leadership, the ISW said, noting that this is “activity that could be setting conditions for a Russian attack against Ukraine from Belarus.”
In a phone call on Thursday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Belarusian counterpart Viktor Khrenin discussed “unspecified bilateral military cooperation,” the “implementation of unspecified strategic deterrence measures,” and “progress in preparing” the joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV), the think tank observed.
On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Lukashenko met in Minsk and discussed “an unspecified Russo-Belarusian ‘shared vision’ for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
While Belarus, a loyal Kremlin ally, hasn’t directly joined the Ukraine conflict, Russian troops have been allowed to do exercises on Belarusian territory since before the beginning of the war. The country was used by Russia to launch its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Lukashenko agreed in October 2022 to create a joint “regional grouping of troops” with Russia, saying the decision was made in response to provocations by the NATO military alliance on its border with Ukraine, and Ukrainian plans to attack Belarus.
Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of Russia and Belarus for comment.
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