As they are apt to do, the betting public and odds makers have made their feelings known about the Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). 

Before playing at Kansas City on Monday night, the Patriots were installed as three-point favorites vs. Cincinnati. But after the Pats were overpowered in a 41-14 loss to Kansas City, the Bengals assumed the role as road favorites throughout Nevada. And if New England closes as an underdog vs. Cincinnati (-1), it would mark just the third time the Patriots weren’t favored at home since 2005, per Spreadapedia data.

You know the Patriots can’t be counted out, and you know there is risk betting against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. (It’s our hope the message-bearer rides a horse and is dressed like Paul Revere.) Anyways, the numbers back up such sentiments; the Patriots are 41-21 against the number as underdogs in Belichick’s tenure (66.1 percent), winning the bulk of these games outright (32-30). Of course, this also includes data going back to 2000, when Drew Bledsoe was quarterback. It also includes seasons when Brady had Deion Branch or Randy Moss at wide receiver.

So good luck trying to figure out the Patriots. Yes, yes, they can’t b ewritten off, but no, no, they can’t exactly be supported with swagger.

Whatever you do, make sure to study the Bengals, too. Here’s a fun fact: per Spreadapedia, they have a chance to be road favorites for the 33rd time in Marvin Lewis’ 12-season tenure. They are 16-15-1 against the number in these games.

Yes, the Bengals haven’t won a postseason game under Lewis. But they have rarely been hapless, and they have usually been respectable. And in the last four seasons, they are 33-21 straight-up and 30-20-4 against the number. In fact, they are 3-0 straight-up and against the number to begin 2014.

Which explains why they may close as favorites on Sunday night.

Line: Bengals -1. Total: 46.Line movement: The intrigue here is how the public treats the game on Sunday. Will the bettors give the Patriots another shot? If so, the line could trend downward. Still, New England +1.5 was available in Nevada as of late in the week.

The total opened as high as 47.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, but it has dropped a little, which likely has something to do with New England’s lack of offensive punch.

Trends that matter: The Patriots are 5-2 straight-up vs. the Bengals in Belichick’s tenure, but they are just 3-4 vs. the spread.

The Bengals are 4-6-1 straight-up and 5-6 against the number after a bye week under Lewis. Lewis-coached teams are just 16-25-3 against the number in October (39.0 percent). By contrast, the Patriots are 36-19-2 against the spread in October under Belichick (65.5 percent).

New England’s ground game will be key: With their passing game struggling, will the Patriots play a power game on Sunday night? After all, the Bengals have allowed 5.1 yards per carry. Establishing the run could open some opportunities in play-action for New England, which needs to find a way to stretch defenses.

New England’s run defense on the spot, too: The Bengals have attempted more rushes than passes this season (102-88). The Patriots’ goal must be to get Cincinnati in tough down-and-distance situations and to make quarterback Andy Dalton beat them. The Patriots also have to find a way to stress a Cincinnati offensive line that hasn’t allowed a sack this season. Simply put, New England needs to apply pressure and discomfort to Cincinnati in all phases.

Gronkowski’s presence could give New England a lift: When the Bengals knocked off New England 13-6 last season, the Patriots were without tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the passing game faltered, with Brady completing just 18-of-38 passes for 197 yards. While he perhaps isn’t in top form after a 2013 knee injury, Gronkowski remains an important part of the New England passing attack, and stopping him must be one of Cincinnati’s primary goals.

Injuries that matter: The Bengals will likely be without Pro Bowl outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion) and starting wide receiver Marvin Jones (ankle). Both are doubtful for Sunday night. However, wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) is probable.

The Patriots are in good health entering October, though Gronkowski (knee) and defensive end Chandler Jones (shoulder) are among those dealing with ailments.

The Linemakers’ lean: The Patriots’ power rating has dropped three straight weeks, but we trust Brady and Belichick to turn things around. The Pats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games – and 29-10 ATS after a loss since 2003 – so we’re going to side with them as the dogs this week. Furthermore, we like the UNDER. The Pats don’t want a shootout and all of Cincy’s games have stayed UNDER this season.