Fearing weak turnout, especially among young voters and working-class Americans, Sanders, a Vermont independent who regularly caucuses with the Democrats, is set to begin his blitz in Oregon on October 27, making his way to California, Nevada, Texas and Florida before capping off his second weekend in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“It is rather amazing to me that we are in a situation right now, which I hope to change, where according to poll after poll, the American people look more favorably upon the Republicans in terms of economic issues than they do Democrats,” Sanders told the New York Times on Wednesday. “That is absurd.”
Sanders’ status, as a popular yet polarizing progressive figure will put Senate candidates in key races between a rock and a hard place, having to carefully calculate whether rallying with the senator could give them the final midterm boost they need or deal a blow to the months-long efforts made to appeal to more moderate voters in swing states.
Over the summer, Democrats faced an unexpectedly optimistic midterm outlook. The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade became a key motivator for voters, a string of legislative wins for the Biden administration bolstered support, and top Republicans were casting their own doubts over the GOP’s chances of taking back Congress.
But recent polls have shown Republican gains on the generic congressional ballot, and GOP Senate candidates in key battleground states have managed to close in on their Democratic opponents.
“I am a little bit concerned that the energy level for young people, working-class people [is not as high as it should be],” Sanders said. “And I want to see what I can do about that.”
Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman told Newsweek that Sanders’ campaigning “could help increase turnout on the Democratic side, though the Democratic candidates themselves may avoid rallying with Sanders directly as they try to position themselves as moderates in swing states and avoid Republicans attacks of being close with Sanders.”
It is unclear if any of the statewide candidates that Sanders is rallying for will appear alongside him.
Sanders Could Help With Young Voters
Julia Azari, a political science professor at Marquette University, said that the upside to bringing in someone like Sanders is that he has an avid following. Even in a swing state like Wisconsin, he won the 2016 Democratic primary and had strong support in the 2020 primary.
So, his efforts to energize voters could help Democratic Senate candidates in close races with one key objective: mobilizing voters and increasing turnouts.
“Some polls have shown Democratic voters to be less enthusiastic about voting than Republicans, which is a typical pattern for the party that holds the White House,” Azari told Newsweek.
Eleanor Neff Powell, a political professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, added that another voting bloc that typically stays home during the midterms is young voters—a group Sanders is popular with. Powell said that while low turnout among young voters has been a national trend, the challenges of drumming up enthusiasm is especially concerning for Mandela Barnes.
Sanders has made it a top priority to get Barnes, the Wisconsin lieutenant governor running for Senate against incumbent Republican Ron Johnson, elected. Sanders allowed the campaign to use his name in fundraising emails, which helped bring in at least $500,000, a Sanders adviser told the New York Times.
However, Barnes is 2.9 points behind, despite having the advantage until late last month, according to FiveThirtyEight. Data from the Wisconsin Elections Commissions shows that voters age 18 to 24 account for only 8 percent of the state’s registered voters, and the number of registered voters over 65 more than triples that figure.
“It’s a little surprising that the lieutenant governor—as a younger, more charismatic candidate—that he hasn’t been doing a better job of bringing [young voters] in,” Powell told Newsweek. “It’s the national trend we’re seeing here, but it’s certainly not a good sign for lieutenant governor.”
For a candidate like Barnes, lack of interest among young voters is “pretty much a deadly thing” Powell said. So, it might be worth the cost of potentially alienating moderate voters to get the extra mobilization.
Matt Grossmann, the director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Pubic Policy and Social Research, added that while an appearance alongside Sanders could be subject to Repubican attacks, campaigning with a more moderate Democrat, like President Joe Biden, might not necessarily help appeal to more voters in the middle, either.
“Biden is currently at least as unpopular as Sanders, so it is not clear that Sanders is the best bogeyman for Republicans,” Grossmann told Newsweek.
Why Campaigning With Sanders Could Backfire
While Sanders’ tour could be what pushes Democratic candidates over the finish line, it could also be what costs them the election.
Grossmann and Azari said there is research that shows congressional candidates benefit from being perceived as moderate, although they noted that the label is mostly reflected by a candidate’s positions and record rather than physical proximity to another member of their party. Azari also pointed out that some evidence suggests the advantage is slipping away.
Republicans would likely seize on an opportunity to paint their opponents as progressive. In states like Wisconsin, where GOP candidates have been more focused on a base-centric approach that appeals to conservative voters rather than attracting moderate or liberal voters, a Sanders appearance could hand them a pleasant surprise.
In Wisconsin, deciding to campaign with the Vermont senator would be “a politically dangerous thing to do,” Powell said.
“Our two senators, Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johsnon, are sort of at ideological extremes,” she said.
“Senator Baldwin is very progressive and Senator Johnson is one of the most conservative senators. So, it’s not that very progressive candidates can’t get elected statewide in Wisconsin, but strategically I’d say it’s probably not in a candidate’s interest to alienate so many potentially moderate voters.”
Wisconsin has historically been a swing state. In 2020, it Biden won by 0.63 percent over President Donald Trump, who carried the state in 2016 by 0.77 percent. And although Wisconsin voted for the Democratic nominee in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, those candidates won the state by a margin even smaller than Biden’s in 2020.
Throughout his campaign, Barnes has tried to build an economic message that differs from Sanders’ ideas, Azari said.
“It’s certainly possible that this will hurt any effort for Barnes to be perceived as moderate, but there may be other objectives and strategies in play,” she said.
Powell said one way for Barnes’ campaign to get around this is to carefully script where Sanders appears, putting him in more liberal parts of the state and keeping him out of the more conservative areas.
Sanders’ Wisconsin events are planned in Eau Claire, La Crosse and Madison, which are more liberal pockets of the state.
“There’s this cost-benefit calculation that campaigns always have to make: the blowback and potentially hurting yourself with moderate voters in order to get the energetic mobilization from the more progressive voters,” Powell said. “That’s always a tough calculation for campaigns to make.”
Newsweek reached out to Sanders’ office and Barnes’ campaign for comment.
