Let’s get right to it and highlight the most intriguing prop bets we think give you the best chance of winning some cold, hard cash and kicking the season off right.
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All prop bets are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted
NFL Betting: Best prop bets from every Week 1 game
Bills at Rams (TNF): Isaiah McKenzie OVER 3.5 receptions (+118)
Gabriel Davis deservingly received a ton of hype all summer, which comes as no surprise. On the biggest stage of his life, Buffalo’s divisional-round tilt with the Chiefs in January, Davis hauled in 8-of-10 targets for 201 yards and four TDs. Now Davis is the bona fide No. 2 behind Stefon Diggs with Cole Beasley gone and Emmanuel Sanders retired. That bumps McKenzie up to primary slot receiver, which is still a very healthy role in this high-flying offense. While the Rams were above-average against receivers out wide last season, they gave up the most catches (286) and yards (3,964) to slot receivers in the NFL. Davis should hit the OVER on his 59.5 receiving yards prop (-103), but McKenzie’s 3.5 catches at +118 presents the superior value.
Panthers vs. Browns: Baker Mayfield OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (+126)
We’ll gladly take the plus-odds in the revenge game here, as Mayfield gets to immediately stick it to the Browns for doing him dirty during the offseason. The game script positively favors Mayfield and the Panthers in pretty much every way: it’s in Carolina, Cleveland will be without QB Deshaun Watson, and every major Panthers offensive weapon will be taking the field this weekend. With stud back Christian McCaffrey capable of catching two TDs himself and top wideout D.J. Moore already developing a rapport with Mayfield, two passing TDs seems like a low bar here.
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Patriots at Dolphins: Damien Harris to score a TD (-106)
Talk about playing the odds! Harris enjoyed a breakout third season in ‘21, scoring a whopping 15 TDs after scoring just twice his first 12 games as a pro. With 2021 first-round draft pick Mac Jones leading his offense, Bill Belichick seems content with running early and often. That’s especially true in the red zone, where Harris carried the ball in 45 of New England’s 63 red-zone snaps. My trusty calculator tells me that’s a 71.4-percent red-zone touch share! Even if promising second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson gets a usage boost this season, Harris should still receive plenty of scoring opportunities. The Dolphins allowed 16 TDs on the ground last season, including one of Harris’s 15 scores. Book it.
Eagles at Lions: Jalen Hurts OVER 46.5 rushing yards (-113)
This one feels like an early Christmas gift. Hurts should benefit in many ways from the Eagles’ addition of stud wideout A.J. Brown. Finally the super-athletic QB has a top-10 receiver to open up the field for him. He won’t need to run as much, but something tells me Hurts will still gash defenses for plenty of ground yards. When these teams met in 2021, the 24-year-old QB tallied 74 rushing yards on just seven attempts. (Lions defensive coordinator and “Hard Knocks” favorite Aaron Glenn must have been swearing a lot that day.) Hurts recorded over 46.5 rushing yards in nine of his 15 games last season, and defenses can no longer sell out to stop him with Brown running loose. Hurts so good.
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Ravens at Jets: Mark Andrews to score a TD (+109)
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back from a frustrating 2021, hopefully putting injuries and inconsistencies in their rear-view mirror. With Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown now in Arizona, Andrews should easily lead all tight ends in most categories once again this season. Lamar Jackson and company looked Andrews’ way a stunning 153 times last year, hooking up 107 times for 1,361 yards and nine scores. He’s as sure-handed as they come in the scoring zone, hauling in 8-of-11 targets and producing seven TDs within the 10-yard line last season. Coincidentally, the Jets allowed eight TDs to tight ends last season, tied for fifth most in the league. Oddsmakers give Baltimore an implied total of about 26 points, and Ravens running back JK Dobbins (knee) still appears to be less than 100 percent. Andrews scoring feels like a lock.
49ers at Bears: Deebo Samuel to score a TD (+111)
We very nearly selected a Trey Lance rushing prop here because that feels more exciting, but the Bears were surprisingly good at containing QB scrambles last season. Where Chicago struggled – and should struggle even more with pass-rushing stud Khalil Mack no longer in the Chi – was limiting passing touchdowns. The Bears allowed 23 scores through the air in 2021, second-most behind Arizona. You could go with Brandon Aiyuk’s TD prop (+195), but your odds and value would be better with Deebo. In his breakout third season, Samuel led the NFL in yards per catch (18.2) and scored 14 TDs, eight on the ground and six through the air. PFF ranks Chicago dead-last in its power rankings and second-worst in its secondary rankings. Enjoy the Deebo feast.
Colts at Texans: Jonathan Taylor OVER 97.5 rushing yards (-117)
This may seem like chalk, but chalk wins you money a lot of the time. With these odds, how can we not make this our best prop bet of the game? The Texans still stink, with PFF listing them as the second-worst roster in the NFL. Taylor gashed Houston for 145 rushing yards in Week 6 last season (netting 10.4 yards per carry) and then again for 143 in Week 13. This is candy-from-baby territory.
Jaguars at Commanders: Terry McLaurin to score a TD (+160)
McLaurin had a down year by his standards in 2021, finishing with five TDs and just over 1,000 yards receiving. That’s still not awful considering Taylor Heinicke was the one throwing him the ball the vast majority of the season. Now Scary Terry gets a considerable upgrade at QB with Carson Wentz coming over from Indy. Say what you will about Wentz, but when healthy he’s an above-average deep-ball passer. He should produce immediate results for Washington’s promising young core of skill players, starting this week against a rebuilding Jaguars defense. Jacksonville allowed 17 wide receiver TDs in 17 games last season. That, combined with +160 odds, is all we need to know to take some action here.
Saints at Falcons: Alternate line — Saints -13.5 (+227)
I don’t think the Saints will simply win this divisional season-opener — I think they will run away with it. Oddsmakers always seem more generous to weak teams in the first week of the season, perhaps luring in new bettors in hopes they will stick around all season. Regardless of the motivating factors behind New Orleans -6.5 spread, it’s ludicrous. Last year, the Saints had a great defense, which got even better with safety Tyrann Mathieu coming to the Bayou. New Orleans’ offense should be markedly improved, as well, as Jameis Winston looks good under center, Michael Thomas (hamstring) has (hopefully) returned to football, and Alvin Kamara has so far avoided suspension. New Orleans opened last season with a 38-3 spanking of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (and beat Tom Brady and the reigning-champion Bucs by 11 in the 2021 opener), and now it gets to tee off against Marcus Mariota!? Let’s use Caesar’s ‘Same Game Parlay’ function to toggle the spread and make some real money.
Bengals vs. Steelers: Joe Burrow OVER 258.5 passing yards (-117)
When Bengals coach Zac Taylor took the training wheels off Burrow in the latter part of the 2021 season, the era of Cincy domination began. In the 2020 No. 1 pick’s last two regular-season starts against Baltimore and Kansas City, he put up yardage totals of 525 and 446. He then proceeded to storm through the AFC and bring the Bengals to within four points of Super Bowl glory. Now he gets to go off against Pittsburgh at home behind the most improved offensive line in the NFL. What’s cooler than being cool? Joey Brr.
Chiefs at Cardinals: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 290.5 passing yards (-137)
The Cardinals allowed just one QB to record over 280 passing yards last season, and that man’s name is Jimmy Garoppolo. All said, Arizona allowed 214.4 passing yards per game and a staggering 202.6 air yards per home game. That does not bode well for Mahomes, who soldiers on without the continued services of speedy wideout Tyreek Hill. The UNDER would be worth consideration at 281.5 passing yards, in my opinion. Smash this prop like Budda Baker smashes wideouts in the open field.
Chargers vs. Raiders: Austin Ekeler OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-117) OR to score a TD (-130)
Pick either of these props because we love them both in what should be a pretty high-scoring divisional affair. Ekeler was one of the biggest RB studs nobody seemed to want to talk about last season, recording 1,558 scrimmage yards and 20 all-purpose TDs despite not being selected for the Pro Bowl. Hell hath no fury like an Ekeler snubbed! Ekeler has little to no competition for backfield touches as of right now in L.A., and the Raiders allowed 94.8 rushing yards and 23 total TDs to running backs last season. Go off, Ek.
Vikings vs. Packers: Justin Jefferson OVER 81.5 receiving yards (-137)
Jefferson might break the game of football this season with Kevin O’Connell as coach. It’s easy to see why so many fantasy football owners selected the super-talented third-year wideout in the first few picks of PPR drafts. We most likely won’t see many more receiving yard props in the 80s for Jefferson. He exceeded 81 receiving yards nine times last season and might reach the teens this year. Minnesota will need to air it out to beat reigning back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. Fire away.
Titans vs. Giants: Derrick Henry OVER 98.5 rushing yards (+104)
King Henry makes his triumphant return to the NFL regular season after fully recovering from a broken bone in his right foot. The Giants won’t even know what hit them by the end of Week 1. They allowed 112.9 rushing yards per game last season and didn’t even have to face Henry. Before his midseason injury, the bruising back was averaging a league-best 117.1 rushing yards per game, on pace to easily win his third-straight rushing crown. The bid for that third crown begins this weekend in Nashville.
Buccaneers at Cowboys (SNF): Tom Brady OVER 0.5 interceptions (-133)
It’s one of the most overused and consistently incorrect takes in sports, but I’m sticking to it this year: this will be the season in which Brady falls off the elite-production cliff. The writing is on the wall: extended time away from the team during camp, endless banter about how he wanted out of Tampa Bay, and no more Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Brown as targets. Now the GOAT must travel to AT&T Stadium to face a hungry Cowboys squad that featured the most-improved defense in 2021? Brady threw two interceptions in the season opener against Dallas last season, and that was in Tampa Bay. He threw two picks in New Orleans in Week 1 in 2020 and has a total of 14 Week 1 interceptions across his illustrious career. Trevon Diggs will pick him off by halftime of the Sunday Night game.
Broncos at Seahawks (MNF): Russell Wilson OVER 255.5 passing yards (-117)
Talk about all the feels in Week 1. After 10 years, nine Pro Bowls, two Super Bowl appearances, and one Lombardi Trophy with the Seahawks, Wilson gets to play his first game as a Bronco where it all began in Seattle. Good luck to that Seahawks defense! Woof. Seattle allowed 4,766 passing yards in 2021, the second-most in the NFL. That averages out to 280.4 passing yards per game, 35 more than we need here. Mr. Unlimited always seems to start seasons strong. Methinks he’ll enjoy his strongest start ever with an actual NFL-caliber offensive line on Monday Night Football.
