The midterm elections will see Americans cast votes in local, statewide and U.S. Congress races on November 8. Extra attention has been focused on U.S. House of Representatives and Senate elections as both sides seek to secure or maintain majorities that can facilitate or hinder party priorities.
Below is a breakdown of some of the tightest midterm races where candidates who are trailing may have the opportunity to pull off an upset on Election Day.
Close U.S. Senate Races
In North Carolina, Republican Representative Ted Budd is running for a U.S. Senate seat against Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former public defender and judge. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average currently shows Beasley trailing with 44.1 percent compared to Budd’s 46.7 percent. Some recent polls show Budd with an even larger lead, but others have Beasley behind by just 1 point, leaving room for the Democrat to potentially beat her GOP challenger on Election Day.
In Ohio, Republican Senate Candidate J.D. Vance, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is generally leading Democrat Tim Ryan in recent polling. But Vance’s polling average advantage on FiveThirtyEight is currently 1.5 points, with the Republican leading at 46.1 percent compared to Ryan’s 44.6 percent. A poll released Monday by Spectrum News/Siena College, a pollster with an “A” rating on FiveThirtyEight, showed Ryan and Vance tied at 46 percent.
In a Nevada U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has also been trailing her Republican opponent, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt. But FiveThirtyEight’s polling average is extremely tight, showing Laxalt with 46 percent of support compared to Cortez Masto’s 45.6 percent. Therefore, Laxalt appears poised to flip the blue seat red, but Cortez Masto’s disadvantage in the polls may also be small enough to close come Election Day.
Close U.S. House Races
A recent poll for a U.S. House race in Virginia also shows an extremely close race between the Democratic and Republican candidates. Democratic Representative Elaine Luria is locked in a tie with Republican Jen Kiggans, with both securing 45 percent of support in a recent poll from Christopher Newport University. This means that Kiggans, who serves in the Virginia Senate, could pull off an upset and flip the seat red, or Luria could dash GOP hopes on Election Day of a GOP victory.
Another tight U.S. House race can be found in Minnesota, where Democratic Representative Angie Craig is only leading Republican candidate Tyler Kistner by 1 point in a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.
In Colorado, Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer is favored to win the race for a U.S. House seat against Democrat Yadira Caraveo, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election model. But Caraveo has closed in on Kirkmeyer’s lead significantly in recent months. A June Global Strategy Group poll had Kirkmeyer leading by 8 points, but in early August and mid-October surveys from the pollster, Kirkmeyer’s lead had shrunk to 2 points.
