O’Rourke rose to national prominence after nearly defeating Texas Senator Ted Cruz in 2018’s Senate race, giving Democrats hopes of flipping the state for the first time in decades. O’Rourke is now challenging Abbott, first elected in 2014, in the gubernatorial race.
Abortion, one of the top issues for many voters following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, emerged as key issues during Friday’s debate, with both candidates accusing each other of holding extremist views on the topic. O’Rourke also sought to tie what he views as Abbott’s “hateful rhetoric” to a 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, while Abbott took aim at President Joe Biden, whose low—yet improving—approval rating could burden Democrats in key races.
O’Rourke entered the debate as the underdog in the race, as he has not led a single poll released this year—though Abbott’s lead has recently been within the single digits.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 22 to 26 of 1,327 likely voters—the most recent public polling of the race—found Abbott with a 7 point lead against O’Rourke. The poll found the Republican governor securing 53 percent of the vote, while just 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for O’Rouke.
The poll found that 38 percent of voters were most concerned about the U.S.-Mexico border, while 17 percent listed abortion as their top concern. It carried a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
Other polls have found similar results. A September 20 to 22 Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters found O’Rourke trailing Abbott by 8 percentage points. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Abbott, while 42 percent said they would back O’Rourke in November.
Emerson found most Texans were concerned about the economy, rather than immigration. The poll had a margin of error of 3.02 percentage points.
No public poll conducted this year has found O’Rourke leading Abbott. The most recent poll to do so was Redfield & Wilton Strategy poll conducted on November 9, 2021, among 724 likely voters. It found O’Rourke with a single-point lead over Abbott.
Texas Governor Race Slightly Narrows: Polls
While Abbott has sustained a lead over O’Rourke, there are signs that the former congressman has made some gains in recent weeks. Democrats in several key races saw a polling bump after the Supreme Court in June overturned Roe v. Wade—repealing abortion rights across the country. Meanwhile, Biden’s once-dismal approval rating has risen—though he remains underwater, which could mitigate Democratic losses.
Abbott currently leads O’Rourke by about 7.3 percentage points, according to an aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight. While it’s still a comfortable lead for Abbott, it’s tighter than the 10.4 point lead he held in June.
Abbott in Tighter Race Than Past Elections
Even though Abbott appears to hold a lead against O’Rourke, he still appears to be headed for his closest election. During the 2018 midterm elections, which saw Democrats make gains across the country, Abbott sailed to reelection by about 11 points despite O’Rourke nearly flipping the Senate seat and Democrats flipping two House seats.
In 2014, Abbott defeated Democrat Wendy Davis by more than 20 points.
Newsweek reached out to the O’Rourke and Abbott campaigns for comment.
