CHAMPS:
- President George W. Bush: Whatever you think of him, you’ve got to respect his political smarts. Starting after his inaugural in January 2001, Bush decided to act as if he had a mandate to lead, even though he didn’t. By pushing through his tax cut, he put the Democrats on the defensive–where they have stayed ever since. By leading effectively just after September 11, he solidified his national security credentials. Then, as the midterms approached, he ran out the clock by talking about Iraq. This made it harder for the Democrats to get any traction.
When the subject finally turned to the economy and other issues, Bush went on the stump–campaigning in 16 states, many of which he visited several times. This could have backfired, but proved brilliant. By making many races a referendum on his own job performance, Bush was able to transfer some of his 9/11 trust to other Republicans. Karl Rove gets all the credit, and he deserves plenty. But his boss is shrewd, too.
Sen. Bill Frist: As chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, Frist, the medical doctor who represents Tennessee, had his reputation on the line. He raised money and campaigned tirelessly for GOP Senate candidates and won several races he was expected to lose–including Wayne Allard in Colorado, Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, John Sununu in New Hampshire and Norm Coleman in Minnesota. Frist is smart, appealing and a good bet to succeed Bush as a the GOP standard-bearer in 2008–if it isn’t Jeb.
Ralph Reed: As chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, Reed, former director of the Christian Coalition, inherited a mess. He faced a popular Democratic governor and two popular, seemingly unassailable Democratic senators. But Reed had the last laugh. First, Chambliss used national security issues to close the gap on Sen. Max Cleland, even though Chambliss avoided Vietnam and Cleland was a triple amputee war veteran. After Republicans delayed acting on creating a department of homeland security, Chambliss beat Cleland in part by accusing him of … delaying action on homeland security. Then, in one of the biggest upsets of the evening, Republican Sonny Perdue beat Gov. Roy Barnes. While the Georgia congressional delegation is still mostly Democratic (and heavily black), the state itself is now safely Republican, especially in presidential elections. And Reed is carrying big-time clout inside the GOP.
CHUMPS:
Sen. Tom Daschle: Nice guys finish last, as Leo Durocher put it. Daschle, the Senate Majority Leader, was most responsible for crafting a strategy for holding the Senate. He failed badly. His original mistake was to misplay the Bush tax cut. Instead of championing and publicizing a real alternative–one that gave middle-class taxpayers more than Bush’s bill, and the wealthy less–he was on the defensive from Day One. When 12 Democrats voted for the Bush version, he settled on a cautious, Bush-lite approach that was incoherent to voters. He was so worried about saving his friend Tim Johnson in South Dakota (who is ahead by only 500-plus votes, with a recount pending), that he didn’t think hard enough about the larger picture. When he finally did get tough with the Republicans for attacking the patriotism of Democrats, he didn’t calibrate it right (and not only because he was wearing a pink tie on the floor). Instead of steely anger, Daschle lost his composure, which is one of his finest qualities.
Rep. Richard Gephardt: The House Minority Leader wasn’t expected to take the House back for the Democrats, but to lose six seats is lame. Not since 1934 has the party out of power in the first midterm election of a new administration actually slipped back in the House. Part of the explanation is that Gephardt, who is (was?) planning to run for president, is simply not an attractive enough messenger for the Democratic Party. And the message was garbled.
For instance, the party’s emphasis on helping to pay for college education, a frequent theme in the Clinton years, was almost entirely missing from this campaign. The campaign seemed to be directed at the elderly and their Social Security and prescription drugs, as if no one under 65 even voted. Gephardt was wrongly blamed for supporting the war resolution; that was a genuine matter of conviction for him. But that doesn’t excuse his bungling of the economic issues that are supposed to be his bread and butter.
- Bill Clinton: For months, the former president has been burning up the wires consulting with Democrats and otherwise pulling strings in the party. His advice to candidates has usually been solid; if they took it more, they would have done better. But Clinton’s personal appearances for Democratic candidates proved to be disastrous. The one close state where he didn’t campaign, Arkansas, is the one bright spot for the Democrats, where Mark Pryor was elected to the Senate. Clinton’s efforts to bring out the black vote in places like Baltimore, New York and Miami fell far short of what was needed. Those folks were going to vote Democratic anyway. By campaigning so vigorously, Clinton no doubt alienated some independents, who, in a straight up comparison between the former president and the current one, went with Bush.
All of this needs to be said with some sense of humility. I, for one, completely miscalled this election. I thought the Democrats would close the gap and keep the Senate, as the “out” party has historically. But politics is a rough business, and history’s verdict–now being rendered on this election–will always be harsh.
