Simple: Chase drivers get points based on their finish, but no one gets automatic advancement into the next three-race segment, the Eliminator Round.

MORE: Drivers to watch at Kansas | Green flag: 2:15 p.m. ET | Kenseth playing it cool

Johnson would spoil someone’s party. Winning at Kansas is especially critical for Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Johnson’s teammate at Hendrick Motorsports, also needs to win. But Junior is terrible at 1.5-mile tracks. Ryan Newman is the fourth Chase driver in the bottom four in points.

Add to that list Brad Keselowski, who enters Kansas in eighth place. He earned pole position for the race and showed speed in Saturday’s early practice. If Keselowski wins, Jeff Gordon would be the man on the bubble.

Nobody wants to go to Talladega next week needing to win to stay in the Chase. Well, except maybe Earnhardt, whose success at the superspeedway figures to give him a huge advantage.

“The third race of each of these blocks is a pressure cooker,” Johnson told the Kansas City Star this week. “Last year showed that it brings the best and worst out of people. I would anticipate a lot of chaos, a lot of frustration, a lot of emotion and just great television.”

But we’re talking Kansas, No. 2 in the Contender Round races and a 1.5-mile track on which Johnson has notable success. He won the spring race at Kansas. It was his third on the track, matching him with Gordon. He has run at Kansas 18 times, and only three times did he finish outside the top 10.

Truth is, few people want to see Johnson win at Kansas. He isn’t popular despite having six Cup titles. Fans want Junior, who remains NASCAR’s most popular driver. A Johnson victory would be nothing but trouble.

Johnson is out of the Chase, the victim of a cheap part failing on his car at Dover. He limped out of the Charlotte race last week with another odd mechanical failure. These things just don’t happen to Johnson or Hendrick drivers.

So there is motivation for Johnson to do well on a comfortable track. He will start 21st in the Hollywood Casino 400. That’s a lot of ground to gain, a lot of cars to pass, at a time in which winners at 1.5-mile tracks tend to lead lots of laps.

But just because Johnson isn’t in the Chase doesn’t mean he isn’t motivated. As Jeff Hammond wrote this week for Fox Sports, Johnson isn’t under pressure to win the Chase, but he and his team are positioned to be something other Chase drivers don’t want him to be.

A spoiler. Win at Kansas, and Johnson ruins someone’s hope of staying alive in the Chase.

Could it be Earnhardt, his Hendrick teammate? Could it be Gordon, who just happens to own Johnson’s car and got Jimmie his Hendrick ride?

Don’t think for a second Johnson can’t win. He has history on his side. He gambled in the spring race and won, despite not having the fastest or best car. He won. He had the fastest car in Saturday’s second practice, but does that really matter? Yes; it has Chsae drivers sweating bullets in their firesuits.

Johnson isn’t the only non-Chase driver who could win at Kansas. But he is the one most likely to win.