Democrats have regularly controlled the governor’s mansion, as well as both of the state’s seats in the United States Senate. Republicans have not controlled the state House of Representatives since 2006; the state Senate since 2002. Even the state flag is blue, matching the partisanship not only of incumbent Governor Kate Brown, but of Oregon’s attorney general, its secretary of state, and the mayors of four out of five of its largest cities.
Which made it such a surprise when President Joe Biden announced he would be the first U.S. president to visit the state since 2015, at a time when he and his party are mired in a desperate fight to maintain its razor-thin majority in Congress.
With less than one month to go until Election Day, Oregon House Minority Leader Christine Drazan leads Democrat Tina Kotek in the polls by several points in her bid to become the first Republican to be elected governor in the state since 1982 in a race featuring third-party candidate Betsy Johnson, who has outraised and outspent both of her opponents and appeals to Democrats and Republicans alike.
In the coastal 5th Congressional District, progressive Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner—who beat incumbent congressman Kurt Schrader in the state’s Democratic primary earlier this year—now finds herself in a virtual stalemate in the polls with Republican candidate Lori Chavez-DeRemer, the former mayor of the Portland suburb of Happy Valley, in a seat Republicans lost by just 6 points in 2020.
And in the adjoining 6th Congressional District, Republican Mike Erickson has battled Elizabeth Warren-backed progressive Andrea Salinas to a stalemate in the polls in a district largely defined by Portland’s southwestern suburbs.
“The last two gubernatorial elections have been some of the most competitive Oregon has seen in some time, which is a reflection of good Republican candidates running and a sentiment from Oregon voters wanting something to change,” Rebecca Tweed, a longtime Republican strategist and political analyst for Portland television station, KGWN. “Oregonians are eager for their quality of life to improve. For many Oregon Republicans, this mid-term election feels like the first time in a long time their vote may make a difference and it’s energizing the base.”
The sudden competitive nature of these races, strategists say, comes not only from national tensions about the state of the economy, but from regional concerns around social issues emerging from liberal enclaves like Portland, a place that resides at the beating heart of conservative rhetoric around the rise of violent crime in America’s major cities.
“For the people that are undecided in this race, the overwhelming issue is inflation and cost of living, with public safety close behind,” Erickson adviser Chuck Adams, a longtime GOP strategist in the state, told Newsweek. “With Oregon’s epidemic homeless problem, a lot of the neighborhood crime emanates from people on the streets, and the Oregon we once loved is now much more dangerous and uncomfortable for people, especially in the Portland area.”
Polling bears that out. In February, a survey commissioned by the Oregon District Attorneys Association found 62 percent of the state’s voters believed Oregon’s political leadership was “too soft” on crime. An October poll commissioned by the Oregonian newspaper found crime and public safety were the top concerns for roughly one-in-six voters in the state, with only homelessness ranking higher. And an August poll commissioned by Portland City Hall found nearly two-thirds of respondents had a negative impression of downtown, with homelessness, cleanliness and crime ranking as the top reasons.
Though issues like the state’s movement to decriminalize drug possession continue to poll highly, Oregon Republicans have made voter anxieties over rising crime and drug addiction a centerpiece of their campaigns, particularly as Brown maintains one of the nation’s lowest approval ratings as governor, according to Morning Consult.
“Public safety in Oregon has been a prominent issue for the last two years ever since the 100 days of riots in Portland,” added Adams. “Here in Salem, crime has spiked as well and much of it is due to street people, mostly from out of state, who have come to Oregon because we now have no penalties for people using hard drugs like heroin, meth and fentanyl. This is a key issue in the governor’s race.”
But Biden’s trip to Oregon—pegged by the White House as an opportunity to discuss his administration’s accomplishments—comes amid a longer string of visits in states that rarely attract presidential attention in the closing weeks of fraught midterm election cycles, indicating a competitive political environment in which every seat matters. Willamette Week, a Portland alt-weekly, reported Kotek was hosting a fundraiser where a meet and greet with Biden costs as much as $10,000 at the same time her opponent was preparing to host a rally with Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a rising star in the national GOP.
Earlier this week, Biden attended the dedication of a new national monument at Colorado’s Camp Hale, a state where Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is facing a stiff challenge for reelection at a time polling shows Democrats have the opportunity to pick up three House seats there.
Prior to that, Biden traveled to a forgettable congressional district in upstate New York where Republican Marc Molinaro is facing Democrat Josh Riley following Democrats’ win in a special election for a seat many believed favorable to Republicans.
Biden officials like Pete Buttigieg have also made visits to sites like Charleston, South Carolina, where Democrat Annie Andrews is seeking to unseat Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace in one of the nation’s most competitive House districts the past two cycles.
But Biden has also avoided key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada and Ohio in recent weeks, where Democrats believed to be underdogs have performed surprisingly well in an environment many believed to once favor Republicans. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was reluctant to mention why during a press briefing with reporters Tuesday, however.
“Look, he’s going to go to California. He’s going to go to Colorado. He’s going to go to Oregon to talk about those accomplishments,” she said. “There will be many more trips to announce and for the president to be out there and talk directly to the American people.”
That said, Oregon Democrats have some upsides in the race, Tweed suggested. The 6th Congressional District—which did not exist two years ago could potentially see its margins widen as voters familiarize themselves with the candidates. Meanwhile, the issue of abortion could prove key to driving some voters, particularly progressive women, to the polls, potentially countering the emotional aspects inherent with messaging around crime rates.
“Oregon has historically had some of the most progressive reproductive rights laws in the country, and also a very high turnout of progressive female and pro-choice voters,” said Tweed. “That issue alone will be a driving factor in this campaign. While the economy has risen back up in polling for the first time in a long time, that’s an issue based on logic more than emotion. Campaigns are emotional, policy-making is logical. To win in November, candidates are able to appeal the most to voter emotions will win.”
Update 10/14/2022, 10:30 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include additional information and context.
