That’s the big question that will answer every other question when it comes to Big 12 expansion talk, which has evolved into 18 schools groveling for the conference’s attention.

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Of all those schools, three — BYU, Houston and Cincinnati — best fit the profile of a Big 12 and Power 5 golden ticket winner.

That’s the good news for those schools. The bad news is if the Big 12 opts to add two teams, then one of those deserving schools is going to be left without a chair.

Here’s a breakdown:  

Houston

From a geographical/major market standpoint, Houston makes the most sense. It gives the conference a little bit of that Southwest Conference nostalgic feel, and it gives the Big 12 a fifth school from Texas. The opener between Oklahoma and Houston at NRG Stadium could offer a snap-shot of how that might feel long term.

How would the other four Texas schools really feel? It depends on how you look at it. Tom Herman needed just one year to put the Cougars on the national radar. Big 12 exposure likely would keep Herman around in the Big 12, and those schools could get jealous.

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But that’s the right way to look at it. Herman is a big-time coach. Adding another playoff contender wouldn’t hurt the conference. It’s better than watching Herman bolt for a major SEC or Big Ten program and be a big-time coach in another conference.

The Big 12 might also prop up Houston basketball, which has made just four one-and-done tournament appearances since reaching the Final Four in 1983-84 when Phi Slamma Jamma was doing their thing.  

BYU

BYU would win the AP football national championship the following football season in 1984. That’s what the Cougars’ bring — an established program that has produced Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterbacks while maintaining steady success.

Since 1998 — when the BCS began — the Cougars rank 22nd among FBS schools with a .636 winning percentage. The only non-Power 5 school that has done better as a full-time FBS member is Boise State. BYU also has the most NCAA tournament appearances without reaching a Final Four at 29.

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That cross-combination is legit, and from a football standpoint the Cougars have done their part to audition. Consider that BYU plays 10 teams this season that played in the postseason in 2015.

There’s also the impact of adding the Mountain Time Zone, though it’s debatable how much that matters. Bringing in BYU also comes with religious implications, but the conference does have Baylor and TCU. It’s doable.

Cincinnati

No team has cycled through more conferences looking for a permanent home. The football team has played in Conference-USA, Big East and the American Athletic Conference since 1996. The school also played in the Metro Conference and Great Midwest Conference in basketball.

They’ve had enough success in both sports to get the long-coveted spot. The football team has a .626 winning percentage since 2000, which ranks 26th among FBS schools at that level since then, not to mention one spot ahead of Notre Dame. The basketball team ranks 35th with a .657 winning percentage during the same stretch.

This would put the Big 12 footprint in Ohio, and it’s even something Ohio State football coach Urban Meyer — a Cincinnati graduate — endorsed. For a school forever sandwiched between the devout high school football culture and the Bengals in the NFL, the Big 12 would be a big-time reward for that patience.

Three compelling arguments, right? All three combinations feel right. That’s what makes this decision so hard.

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Of course, there is a user-friendly version for these three schools. If the Big 12 decides to keep all three and go to 14 teams, then that opens the door for another school, likely from a pool that includes Central Florida, South Florida, Boise State, Memphis, UConn and SMU. Picking just one of those schools is a much, much more difficult exercise. That would trickle down to the AAC and C-USA.

No matter how it ends up looking, it’s not going to look as good as the schools that left the Big 12: Texas A&M, Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado. You have to wonder whether those schools would rather be in their current location or back in the Big 12. That’s a legitimate conversation, too.

But you can’t go back again, and the Big 12 is starting to figure that out. You can go forward with at least two of those schools among Houston, BYU and Cincinnati. That’s the most logical course for the Big 12 should it finally pull the trigger on expansion. It’s probably still wrestling with the question.

Who gets left out?

It carries just as much weight as who gets let in.