But despite what will likely be high-quality play, the Big Ten is light on elite NBA prospects.
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The league has zero lottery players in Sporting News’ preseason prospect rankings, and only three players listed in the top 30. In addition, the Big Ten has the lowest-rated top prospect among Power 5 leagues, and few players in the conference have the potential to rise into that high-upside rung.
The most likely player would probably be Miles Bridges, a 6-6 freak athlete who best profiles as an undersized four due to his lack of developed perimeter game. Beyond him, OG Anunoby is also highly regarded in NBA circles, but that’s more for his aptitude for defense and potential to become a versatile 3-and-D weapon. Indiana’s Thomas Bryant, Maryland’s Melo Trimble and Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes are high-profile players with flaws, but also with potential to develop into solid rotation players at the next level.
To compare this league’s draft potential to the ACC, which currently has 10 players in Sporting News’ top 30, there are only five players in the Big Ten currently in the top 50. Beyond those five, there exists another group that resides under the radar of the common fan but certainly on the radar of those who travel the country scouting talent.
All of these players have some significant problems with their games, but are nonetheless interesting if they can continue to improve.
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Keita Bates-Diop, F, Ohio State: Bates-Diop enters his junior year at Ohio State after a pair of intriguing seasons for different reasons under Thad Matta. Last year, Bates-Diop averaged nearly 12 points and six rebounds per game, showcasing more of the skills that his freakish measurements would seem to portend while also seeing a cut back in some skill categories.
The first thing that must be noted is Bates-Diop’s frame. Ohio State lists him at 6-7, 235 pounds, an addition of 45 pounds since he arrived in Columbus. Accompanying that size, Bates-Diop possesses a wingspan in the 7-foot-2-plus range, placing among the top percentiles in terms of length. He’s not an elite athlete explosively, but he’s a good one laterally who utilizes his length well on both ends. The biggest place that pops up is on the defensive end. When Bates-Diop is engaged on that end, he causes problems for players at the 2 through 4 positions.
When locked in, there are very few players that Bates-Diop can’t guard on this level. He is comfortable switching onto guards and cutting off penetration, as well as switching onto bigger forwards and using his length to affect shots near the rim. His closeout speed on open players is impressive and leads to him blocking quite a few jump shots that most players would never reach. He needs to balance himself better and play hard more consistently, but the tools are there for him to become a strong, versatile player on this end.
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On the other side of the ball, Bates-Diop still possesses a rather rudimentary skill set. The swing skill for him is his jump shot. He has shot 36 percent on 150 career 3-point attempts. His touch is good, but he has some kinks to iron out in his jump shot.
The shot has some hitches at the top, and it comes from far out in front of his body. The release point can get inconsistent and his body can twist a bit mid-shot. He’s also a poor shooter off the dribble, and his ball-handling is still limited, allowing players to close out on him hard without much recourse. However, he has a quick, rangy first step, and if he can iron out the issues of his shot, it could really open up the rest of his game. An improved shot allows him to get to the rim, a strength of his game. He finished in the 90th percentile at the rim in the half court, making 65 percent of his shots around the basket, according to Synergy.
Bates-Diop presents a diverse, rare skill set that few can match. He, Chris Boucher, and Jaron Blossomgame are the only three returning high-major players in the country to average at least 11 points, six rebounds, a block and a 3-pointer per game. Over the last six years, 10 of the 14 draft-eligible high-major players to accomplish this feat were drafted. To join that group, Bates-Diop needs to keep improving in terms of effort and offensive polish. But if he does, a potential career as a versatile, switching defensive player in the NBA could be on the radar.
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Vince Edwards, F, Purdue: At 6-8 with a 7-foot wingspan, Edwards is in a similar boat to Bates-Diop as a versatile, jack-of-all-trades forward. Edwards is the only returning high-major player in college basketball this season to average 11 points per game on a 56 percent true shooting, 11 percent total rebounding and 19 percent assist rate. All eight of the high-major players over the last seven seasons to average those numbers over the course of a season were drafted, so what makes me think Edwards could be different?
For one, he’s not nearly the offensive creator those players are. Many of Edwards’ assists last season came on well-placed entry passes to post players like Caleb Swanigan and AJ Hammons as opposed to him creating a play for others. Also, while Edwards’ frame says he has potential to be a versatile defensive stopper, that doesn’t actually play out. Unlike Bates-Diop, he doesn’t show elite flashes on that end, and too often gets caught flat-footed and blown by when facing less-than-elite competition. When you’re not an elite athlete, effort matters, and Edwards needs to do a better job of staying engaged on that end.
On the plus side, Edwards has really developed his shot over the course of his two years at Purdue, hitting at least two 3-pointers in nine of his final 18 games last season. If he can take the next step this offseason and develop his handle, he has a real chance to become a prolific offensive player. Shot consistency, the ability to create more plays off the bounce and better defensive effort are the swing skills for Edwards. It’s a lot to ask, but at least the framework is there for a potential NBA draftee with some improvement.
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Malcolm Hill, G/F, Illinois: Hill is the leading returning scorer in the Big Ten this season, averaging slightly over 18 points per game last season. Overall, there’s a lot to like about HIll’s game on that end. He’s not an elite athlete, but he’s a fluid one who utilizes his body and angles well, plus knows how to change pace and direction with his dribble to get some space for a shot. He’s turned into a solid passer who can be trusted to create plays for others as a lead ball-handler, a role he often had to take on for a struggling Illinois side last season.
The swing skill for him will be improving the jump shot. He does a good job of hitting jumpers off the dribble, but that jumper has limited upside due to how flat it is. Hill will have a chance due to how he can score and due to how hard he works (particularly on the defensive end, where despite a heavy offensive workload he gives pretty close to maximum effort regularly). Ultimately though, he needs a bit more shooting consistency to carve out an NBA role.
James Blackmon Jr., G, Indiana: Hey, remember this guy? Blackmon (even though he only did it in half a season) is the only returning high-major player to average 15 points per game on a 62 percent true shooting. It’ll be his turn to call the shots as Yogi Ferrell has graduated and the Hoosiers look for offense.
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We know Blackmon can score, but as a 6-3 shooting guard — albeit with long arms — he needs to show more as a distributor to be able to play at the next level. Look for development there, and for growth on the defensive end where he was essentially a revolving door against even the worst competition a season ago. Look for Blackmon to average outrageous numbers this season under Tom Crean, but the key area that scouts will be watching is on the defensive end to prove that he can be a winning basketball player.
Vitto Brown, PF, Wisconsin: Look, at a certain point in this league, you just gotta dig deep and try to find a sleeper. Brown could easily be that sleeper for Wisconsin this season. Entering last season, Brown had taken exactly zero 3-point shots in his career totaling slightly over 250 minutes. But then as his role increased as a junior, so did his jumper. Brown hit 40 percent of his near 100 attempts from deep last season. And better yet, as a 6-8 forward with a 7-foot-3 wingspan (per DraftExpress), Brown has the size to play a legitimate small-ball 4 spot at the next level.
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He has the quickness to defend on the perimeter, and the athleticism to both run in transition and finish at the rim. He really needs to improve his overall game, become more comfortable attacking closeouts and get better rebounding the basketball. But the frame and shooting ability make him an intriguing player to watch this season. Even though he’s entering his senior season as the team’s fourth option, he’s the team’s second-best NBA prospect due to the unteachable gifts he brings to the table in terms of size and athleticism.
Five more for the road: Justin Jackson and Jared Nickens, Maryland; Jalen Coleman-Lands, Illinois, Zak Irvin, Michigan; JaQuan Lyle, Ohio State
